{"version":"https://jsonfeed.org/version/1.1","title":"sma200.trade","home_page_url":"https://sma200.trade","feed_url":"https://sma200.trade/feed.json","description":"SMA200 trend-filter signals, plain-English deep-dives, and open backtest research.","language":"en-us","icon":"https://sma200.trade/favicon.png","favicon":"https://sma200.trade/favicon-32x32.png","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"items":[{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/tlt-extended-below-sma200","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/tlt-extended-below-sma200","title":"TLT has been below its 200-day SMA for 85 days. The 5-year analog set.","content_text":"Long bonds tripped the SMA200 trend filter back in March and have not recovered. 85 calendar days below is the fifth-longest streak of the last five years; the longest was 648 days through the 2022 bond bear. Here is what the framework actually says to do, what the recent analogs look like, and why TLT trips this filter more often than equity ETFs do.","summary":"Long bonds tripped the SMA200 trend filter back in March and have not recovered. 85 calendar days below is the fifth-longest streak of the last five years; the longest was 648 days through the 2022 bond bear. Here is what the framework actually says to do, what the recent analogs look like, and why TLT trips this filter more often than equity ETFs do.","date_published":"2026-06-04T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-06-04T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/sma200-bt-open-source-release","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/sma200-bt-open-source-release","title":"I open-sourced the synthetic-LETF return engine. It includes the borrow-cost fix.","content_text":"If you have ever run a synthetic TQQQ backtest using the standard L * daily_return formula, your numbers are roughly 60% too high. sma200-bt is the corrected version, MIT-licensed, calibrated to within 5% of real TQQQ over 2015 to 2024. Install with pip, use it for any leverage and any underlying.","summary":"If you have ever run a synthetic TQQQ backtest using the standard L * daily_return formula, your numbers are roughly 60% too high. sma200-bt is the corrected version, MIT-licensed, calibrated to within 5% of real TQQQ over 2015 to 2024. Install with pip, use it for any leverage and any underlying.","date_published":"2026-06-04T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-06-04T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/underlying-matters-more-than-leverage","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/underlying-matters-more-than-leverage","title":"For Leveraged ETFs, the Underlying Matters More Than the Leverage","content_text":"The conventional wisdom is 'use less leverage to reduce drawdown.' That's correct in isolation but wrong as a cross-product comparison. 27 years of synthetic-LETF backtests show 3x SPY (UPRO) with the SMA200 filter beats 2x QQQ (QLD) on both CAGR AND max drawdown. The underlying's tail-bear profile dominates the leverage level. Practical implication: pick underlying first, then size leverage.","summary":"The conventional wisdom is 'use less leverage to reduce drawdown.' That's correct in isolation but wrong as a cross-product comparison. 27 years of synthetic-LETF backtests show 3x SPY (UPRO) with the SMA200 filter beats 2x QQQ (QLD) on both CAGR AND max drawdown. The underlying's tail-bear profile dominates the leverage level. Practical implication: pick underlying first, then size leverage.","date_published":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/semi-collapse-scenario","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/semi-collapse-scenario","title":"The Semi Collapse Scenario: What the SMA200 Actually Does to TQQQ and SOXL if Semis Have Their Own Dotcom","content_text":"Most TQQQ and SOXL holders are quietly comforting themselves with 'I'll use the SMA200 to bail if it cracks.' 27 years of synthetic backtests including the actual dotcom collapse show that escape plan works for UPRO (-67% max drawdown) but doesn't save TQQQ (-95%) or SOXL (-99%). The underlying's vol matters more than the filter when leverage is high.","summary":"Most TQQQ and SOXL holders are quietly comforting themselves with 'I'll use the SMA200 to bail if it cracks.' 27 years of synthetic backtests including the actual dotcom collapse show that escape plan works for UPRO (-67% max drawdown) but doesn't save TQQQ (-95%) or SOXL (-99%). The underlying's vol matters more than the filter when leverage is high.","date_published":"2026-05-27T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-27T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/managed-futures-defensive-bucket","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/managed-futures-defensive-bucket","title":"The Third Defensive Bucket: Managed Futures as an Alternative to Cash and Gold","content_text":"When the SMA200 trend filter says 'go flat' on your leveraged equity sleeve, the conventional defensive options are cash (boring), gold (good), or long bonds (broke in 2022). There's a third option most retail strategies don't consider: managed futures via DBMF. The 7-year data shows it adds +0.076 Sharpe over cash and delivers the best single-asset drawdown protection of any defensive bucket tested.","summary":"When the SMA200 trend filter says 'go flat' on your leveraged equity sleeve, the conventional defensive options are cash (boring), gold (good), or long bonds (broke in 2022). There's a third option most retail strategies don't consider: managed futures via DBMF. The 7-year data shows it adds +0.076 Sharpe over cash and delivers the best single-asset drawdown protection of any defensive bucket tested.","date_published":"2026-05-24T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-24T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/why-one-indicator-isnt-enough","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/why-one-indicator-isnt-enough","title":"Why One Indicator Isn't Enough (and Why Three Tuned Indicators Aren't Better)","content_text":"The SMA200 gives you a binary read on long-term trend. Useful, but incomplete. Most traders try to fix this by stacking RSI, MACD, and Bollinger bands until the chart is unreadable. There's a better way, and a walk-forward test reveals why most \"tuned\" confluence strategies are statistical noise dressed up as edge.","summary":"The SMA200 gives you a binary read on long-term trend. Useful, but incomplete. Most traders try to fix this by stacking RSI, MACD, and Bollinger bands until the chart is unreadable. There's a better way, and a walk-forward test reveals why most \"tuned\" confluence strategies are statistical noise dressed up as edge.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/leveraged-etf-borrow-cost","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/leveraged-etf-borrow-cost","title":"The Hidden Cost Every Leveraged-ETF Backtest Ignores","content_text":"Most synthetic LETF backtests overstate returns by ~60% over 10 years. The bug is one missing term in the daily-return formula. This piece shows the calibration proof against real TQQQ, the corrected long-window numbers, and what the SMA200 trend filter actually does once leveraged ETFs are modeled honestly.","summary":"Most synthetic LETF backtests overstate returns by ~60% over 10 years. The bug is one missing term in the daily-return formula. This piece shows the calibration proof against real TQQQ, the corrected long-window numbers, and what the SMA200 trend filter actually does once leveraged ETFs are modeled honestly.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/borrow-cost-correction-synthetic-letf","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/borrow-cost-correction-synthetic-letf","title":"[Current] Borrow-Cost Correction: Synthetic LETF Methodology + Revised Numbers","content_text":"The simple L*daily − ER/252 synthetic LETF formula overstates real TQQQ by 62%. Adding the (L-1)*borrow_rate/252 term tracks real TQQQ within 5%. Walk through the bug, the fix, and revised numbers for synthetic TQQQ 1999-2026 + defensive bucket comparison.","summary":"The simple L*daily − ER/252 synthetic LETF formula overstates real TQQQ by 62%. Adding the (L-1)*borrow_rate/252 term tracks real TQQQ within 5%. Walk through the bug, the fix, and revised numbers for synthetic TQQQ 1999-2026 + defensive bucket comparison.","date_published":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-19T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","methodology","synthetic-letf","tqqq","upro","testfolio","calibration"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/leverage-vs-volatility-per-underlying","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/leverage-vs-volatility-per-underlying","title":"[Updated] Leverage vs Volatility per Underlying: 1x vs 3x, B&H vs SMA200","content_text":"Per-underlying analysis of SPY, QQQ, and ^SOX showing how leverage-vs-vol-decay interacts with the SMA200 filter. Establishes the vol-break-point hypothesis that the full leverage spectrum study later confirmed.","summary":"Per-underlying analysis of SPY, QQQ, and ^SOX showing how leverage-vs-vol-decay interacts with the SMA200 filter. Establishes the vol-break-point hypothesis that the full leverage spectrum study later confirmed.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","leverage","vol-decay","sma200","spy","qqq","sox"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/lrs-family-replication-and-walkforward","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/lrs-family-replication-and-walkforward","title":"[Current] LRS Family: Replication + Walk-Forward Parameter Sweep","content_text":"Replicates the Testfolio LRS-style trend strategies on TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO with walk-forward parameter sweeps. The brutal finding: train-test Sharpe correlation is near zero, meaning 'optimal' parameters don't predict next-decade performance.","summary":"Replicates the Testfolio LRS-style trend strategies on TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO with walk-forward parameter sweeps. The brutal finding: train-test Sharpe correlation is near zero, meaning 'optimal' parameters don't predict next-decade performance.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","methodology","walk-forward","parameter-tuning","overfitting","lrs","rsi","sma"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/full-leverage-spectrum","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/full-leverage-spectrum","title":"[Updated] Full Leverage Spectrum: 1x/2x/3x × B&H/SMA200 across 5 Underlyings","content_text":"Tests every cell of the leverage × filter matrix across SPY, QQQ, ^SOX, gold, and silver over 25.7 years. Finds a vol break-point at ~25-30%: below it, more leverage helps; above it, vol decay destroys returns even with the filter on.","summary":"Tests every cell of the leverage × filter matrix across SPY, QQQ, ^SOX, gold, and silver over 25.7 years. Finds a vol break-point at ~25-30%: below it, more leverage helps; above it, vol decay destroys returns even with the filter on.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","leverage","vol-decay","spy","qqq","sox","gold","silver"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/portfolio-archetypes-search","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/portfolio-archetypes-search","title":"[Updated] Portfolio Archetypes Search: Finding the Sweet Spot","content_text":"Tests 10 candidate portfolio compositions across both stress (2000-2026) and bull (2012-2026) windows, plus sensitivity sweeps for UPRO/UGL ratio and a BTC sleeve. Headline: heavy-gold beats heavy-equity in Sharpe, and SMA200 on the equity sleeve dominates every other configuration.","summary":"Tests 10 candidate portfolio compositions across both stress (2000-2026) and bull (2012-2026) windows, plus sensitivity sweeps for UPRO/UGL ratio and a BTC sleeve. Headline: heavy-gold beats heavy-equity in Sharpe, and SMA200 on the equity sleeve dominates every other configuration.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","portfolio-construction","upro","ugl","btc","sharpe-optimal","sma200","leverage"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/defensive-bucket-comparison","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/defensive-bucket-comparison","title":"[Updated] Defensive Bucket Comparison: Cash vs Gold vs TLT vs Combinations","content_text":"Across 21 years, tested what to hold during SMA200-filter OFF periods on a leveraged-equity strategy. Gold > combinations > cash > long Treasuries. The TLT/ZROZ result is the most surprising and durable: long bonds finish worst on both Sharpe and max drawdown.","summary":"Across 21 years, tested what to hold during SMA200-filter OFF periods on a leveraged-equity strategy. Gold > combinations > cash > long Treasuries. The TLT/ZROZ result is the most surprising and durable: long bonds finish worst on both Sharpe and max drawdown.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","defensive-bucket","gold","tlt","zroz","sma200","sharpe"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/rebalance-frequency-study","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/rebalance-frequency-study","title":"[Current] Rebalance Frequency Study on a 9-Asset Leveraged Portfolio","content_text":"Tests daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly / 30%-band rebalancing on a tested 9-asset leveraged portfolio. Finds that rebalance frequency matters far less than people assume; daily and yearly tie for best Sharpe, middle frequencies are slightly worse.","summary":"Tests daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly / 30%-band rebalancing on a tested 9-asset leveraged portfolio. Finds that rebalance frequency matters far less than people assume; daily and yearly tie for best Sharpe, middle frequencies are slightly worse.","date_published":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-17T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","portfolio-construction","rebalancing","tax-efficiency","leveraged-portfolio"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/sma200-extended-windows-synthetic","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/sma200-extended-windows-synthetic","title":"[Updated] SMA200 on Extended/Synthetic Long Windows","content_text":"Three long-window tests: synthetic TQQQ since 1999, unleveraged S&P 500 since 1940, synthetic 3x S&P since 1940. The unleveraged S&P decade table is the load-bearing finding; the synthetic LETF portions are superseded by the May 19 borrow-cost correction.","summary":"Three long-window tests: synthetic TQQQ since 1999, unleveraged S&P 500 since 1940, synthetic 3x S&P since 1940. The unleveraged S&P decade table is the load-bearing finding; the synthetic LETF portions are superseded by the May 19 borrow-cost correction.","date_published":"2026-05-14T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-14T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","synthetic-letf","sma200","s&p-500","long-history","regime"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/articles/sma200-vs-buy-and-hold","url":"https://sma200.trade/articles/sma200-vs-buy-and-hold","title":"Does the 200-day Moving Average Actually Beat Buy-and-Hold?","content_text":"A look at 16 years of data on QQQ, TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO comparing the simplest trend-filter rule against passive buy-and-hold. The answer is more interesting than either side wants to admit.","summary":"A look at 16 years of data on QQQ, TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO comparing the simplest trend-filter rule against passive buy-and-hold. The answer is more interesting than either side wants to admit.","date_published":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-15T12:00:00Z","authors":[{"name":"Christian"}],"tags":["article","learn"]},{"id":"https://sma200.trade/research/letf-inception-sma200-vs-bh","url":"https://sma200.trade/research/letf-inception-sma200-vs-bh","title":"[Current] LETF Inception Backtest: Buy-and-Hold vs SMA200 Filter","content_text":"Per-fund backtest comparing buy-and-hold against the SMA200 trend filter on SOXL, TQQQ, and UPRO from each fund's launch through 2026. Results show the filter dramatically reduces max drawdown on every fund (-80%+ to -30-40%) with similar long-term Sharpe.","summary":"Per-fund backtest comparing buy-and-hold against the SMA200 trend filter on SOXL, TQQQ, and UPRO from each fund's launch through 2026. Results show the filter dramatically reduces max drawdown on every fund (-80%+ to -30-40%) with similar long-term Sharpe.","date_published":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","date_modified":"2026-05-13T12:00:00Z","tags":["research","leveraged-etfs","sma200","tqqq","soxl","upro","drawdown"]}]}